150
ACUS01 KWNS 290100
SWODY1
SPC AC 290058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
early this evening from parts of southeast Minnesota into western
and northern Wisconsin.

...Wisconsin/Far Southeast Minnesota...
On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is currently
moving through the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 1009
mb low is analyzed across far northern Wisconsin with a cold front
extending southwestward into the mid Missouri Valley. A
southwest-to-northeast corridor of low-level moisture is located
ahead of the front, along which surface dewpoints are in the 50s to
near 60 F. Near this axis, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 500 to 1200
J/kg range. The instability, along with lift associated with a 40 to
50 knot low-level jet, and large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave
trough will continue to be favorable for convective development this
evening. The low-level jet combined with 60 to 70 knots of mid-level
west-southwesterly flow is creating strong deep-layer shear, which
will support a localized severe threat early this evening. Cells
that exhibit rotation could be capable of isolated severe wind gusts
and hail. However, the mode has transitioned to mostly linear
suggesting that any threat will be marginal early this evening...see
MCD 2417.

..Broyles.. 10/29/2026

$$

907
ACUS02 KWNS 281723
SWODY2
SPC AC 281720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Some suppression of upper-level ridging can be expected across the
southern Plains as a shortwave trough moves out of the
Southwest/northern Mexico. Within the northern Rockies, the
upper-level ridge will amplify ahead of a Northwest upper trough.
Modest mid-level height rises will also extend into the central
Plains. A cold front will progress through the lower Great Lakes
region and parts of the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow at low levels
will persist in the southern/central Plains. A modest warm front may
make northward progress within the lower Missouri Valley region late
Thursday into Friday morning.

Convection is likely within the Southwest as the shortwave trough
evolves and moves northeastward. Storms will increase in coverage
northeastward as low-level warm advection develops during the
evening/overnight. Weak lapse rates, modest buoyancy, and weak shear
should minimize severe potential with this activity. Additional
thunderstorms are expected within the lower Missouri Valley late
Thursday into Friday morning. Shear will be slightly stronger than
areas to the southwest. Even so, mid-level lapse rates and elevated
buoyancy will be marginal. Small hail is possible with the strongest
storms, but severe potential still appears low.

..Wendt.. 10/28/2026

$$

416
ACUS03 KWNS 281930
SWODY3
SPC AC 281929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Synopsis...
As upper-level ridging increases within the northern Plains, a
shortwave trough in the Southwest will evolve into a nebulous trough
within the southern/central Plains. Stronger mid-level flow will
arrive within the lower Colorado Valley vicinity towards late
afternoon into the evening as a shortwave trough approaches the Baja
Peninsula.

A broad swath of convection/precipitation is expected in association
with the shortwave trough and warm-advection within the Missouri
Valley vicinity. Poor lapse rates and limited buoyancy should limit
the intensity of this activity. Additional storms are possible
during the mid/late afternoon in the lower Colorado Valley into
parts of southern/central Arizona. Cooler temperatures aloft will
support modest buoyancy (500 to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While a
strong storm or two could produce small hail, shear will remain
limited during the afternoon and should keep severe risk low.

..Wendt.. 10/28/2026

$$

050
ACUS48 KWNS 280745
SWOD48
SPC AC 280743

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed -- Central CONUS...

A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western
U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is
forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and
slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days
6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is
forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly
eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop
across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given
increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front,
in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large
spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the
evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared
to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not
show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends
bear watching over the coming days.

..Leitman.. 10/28/2026